Ideas and evidence in Science

Long-term climatic forecasting informs defence policy

Synopsis

In early 2000 a cyclone swept across southern Africa leading to three weeks of severe floods which devastated Mozambique. In contrast, in Darfur, environmental pressures (through lack of water) contributed to generating an internal and bloody conflict. In Afghanistan, a recent drought has helped to impoverish people, making young men more willing to accept cash inducements to join the Taliban and farmers more likely to grow opium poppies. In all three instances the British Government and the MOD has responded appropriately, either by supplying humanitarian aid, evacuating British civilians or addressing ensuing security threats.

These three events are typical of environmentally-influenced pressures that can cause conflict and tensions within states. Others, such as a river bursting its banks or a mud-slide in Scotland, appear less significant but can still wreak havoc and leave people homeless.

It is in response to this that a group of MOD planners has been given the responsibility of looking ahead and anticipating scenarios as a result of environmental change. Whether rising sea levels or torrential storms, the MOD must ensure that it is equipped to be able to respond to support humanitarian aid projects and to be able to respond to the security challenges faced.

This lesson presents students with some of the climatic change data gathered by the Met Office and proposed by the DCDC (Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centre) department. They are then asked to make observations and to compare these with those made by the MOD. Data is sometimes conflicting and students must consider the reliability and accuracy of their findings.

MOD Topic

Long-term climatic forecasting informs defence policy

Curriculum Checklist

1.1b; 1.3a,b,c; 1.4a,c

Curriculum Links

• Geography
• English
• Citizenship

Prior Knowledge

Understanding of the need for robust methodology to support research findings.
Some awareness of the climatic change agenda.
Team work and debating skills
Understanding of reliability and accuracy of data.

Learning Outcomes

Lower ability students will:

• Understand the influence of source over the nature of scientific research conducted. With support, be able to understand the differences between research carried out by two separate parties.
• Be able to interpret simple data-sets and make observations.
• Appreciate the need for research in order to back up recommendations.

Average ability students will:

• Be able to recognise the differences between various data sources and the impact that the source can have on the reliability of findings.
• Be able to make recommendations based on a review of data available and be able to back much of this up with a rationale.
• Understand the need for robust scientific research in order to back up findings and recommendations.

Higher ability students will:

• Be able to differentiate between various data sources, taking into account their respective contexts.
• Be able to make reasoned arguments / recommendations backed up with a strong rationale.
• Understand the role of scientific research in answering specific questions and its limitations in answering others.

Lesson code

SC1